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@@ -27,7 +27,6 @@ Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration
- Canada UR back to GFC levels
- As corporate revenues get under pressure, volume & unit sales protection will superseede any other consideration (at top line) & margin protection will super seede at bottom line. Will lead to short period of defalation in goods and services. If labor weakness added to the mix people will pile into rates quickly.
- existing home for sale above 21,22,23 lvls
-- PAYX/SPY ratio
- the uncertainty of US election will lead to higher vol
- record low stock beating SPY
- both candidates bad for bonds
@@ -47,7 +46,7 @@ Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ?
16th July market topped after retail sales
-
+Fed put = 3.8 on US10y
To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses