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diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md index f584e72..9ca3e56 100644 --- a/Finance/index.md +++ b/Finance/index.md @@ -6,7 +6,10 @@ [[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]] # Dynamics and logic +ISM price paid leads inflation +Fed rate below inflation fuels growth (how?, easieer to finance yourself?) +Fed rate above inflation put downward pressure on growth probability = succesful outcomes / total outcomes @@ -26,7 +29,12 @@ If started positon half of max position can cut stp loss by half Start by analysing Volatility ATR of the stock to set initial hard stp loss and soft target +Jolts vs ADp vs NFP +more jobs = more consomption +every one who as a job is constently spending $ every M to fund their lifestyle +one person income is one person consomption +Labour mkt and consumer spending is both sides of the same coin Positive correlation between Nominal GDP growth rate & Nominal interest rates @@ -40,7 +48,10 @@ then assume the growth of the total TAM fo the business lets say 3% 8% growth is now the baseline, where you get the multiples, multiples the company should trade at 8% * 2 = 16 should be at 16x times multiples +When the price of money, interest rates, on Nominal and Real bais above or below where Nominal growth is, the surplus is one of the main driver of liquidity. +ex: If inflation running at 3% and Interest rates below that lvl or you have nominal growth at 5% and Nominal Rates below that level then that create more money in the system because comp[anies are operating on a nominal basis. They can finance themselves cheaper. +In past Dollar was backed by gold. Today secured by financial assets. Most important Financial assets are treasuries. Treasuries are secured by gov revenue. Gov revenues = Tax receipt. # COSTLY ERROR WTF WHY ARE THE CHART & BID NOT THE SAME AS MARKET PRICE IN ACCOUNT TAB ??? @@ -153,4 +164,3 @@ What not to do in EM https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf - |