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@@ -82,3 +82,56 @@ https://www.newsweek.com/majority-companies-hiking-prices-cover-tariffs-kpmg-108 map past macro event in GLD and SPY charts + + +# Thesis + +Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession) +Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini + +Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation + +Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes +4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement + + +# Themes & setups + +- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... +- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where? +- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up +- Commodities & platinum deficit +- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy +- Future was ai just a meme pullback +- value/grow spread largest in 40 years +- Humanoid robot theme meme wave +- Bond 3std move in 2025? +- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April +- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season +- Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year +- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth + +# ITPM 2025 outlook +- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets +- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper +- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows) +- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump +- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ? +- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable +- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now +- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary +- 10/2y as steepened/normalised +- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth +- Energy cost + + +# Alex notes +- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in +- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions +- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy) +- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy) +- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold +- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go +- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25) +- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50 +- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration |