From 24c8743f5e6a30d91ee84e54589b818275521128 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: mac Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2025 10:43:53 -0500 Subject: Auto from nzxt - Thu 18 Dec 2025 10:43:53 AM EST --- Finance/index.md | 6 ++++++ Trading.md | 10 +++++++++- 2 files changed, 15 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md index 9152992..f16a738 100644 --- a/Finance/index.md +++ b/Finance/index.md @@ -11,7 +11,13 @@ Hard stop loss is a must have - never again down 11% in a day in a position map all past macro event in GLD and SPY charts +eps first thing to watch +Want to be aware of Valuation but not an investor ! Need broader context valuation is not enough, not main descision maker + +Trading is much more than looking at futures and vibing it out... +repair and replace no vibing ! +scenario analisys # Dynamics and logic ISM price paid leads inflation diff --git a/Trading.md b/Trading.md index cf14c72..1cf4b93 100644 --- a/Trading.md +++ b/Trading.md @@ -40,6 +40,9 @@ WBD Buy dec 25 cal @ 0.75$ - XOM 145 PT - SU - [[wiki4:HON|HON]] +- Long DUOL - valuation reset eps 25x pivot +- short BAH (consulants) +- long cflt alab # Market Themes & Narratives @@ -50,7 +53,6 @@ another leg for silver to 80 / 100 ? Papermarket & physicals shenanigans - midterms - Q1 usually is OK, with the weakness coming in Q2 and Q3 - see chart {{local:img/midterms.png|midterms seasonality}} the subsequent quarters after Midterms are the strongest @@ -75,6 +77,12 @@ Oil Shock risk # Notes & Observations on markets dynamics +- Ai "god" momentum & service sector apocalypse + +- no hiring no firing mrkt + +- K shaped everything + - Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... {{local:img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg}} - Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary -- cgit v1.2.3