From 973b079c7dded19fcf84f600c9dc230dc110503d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: nic Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2024 20:54:47 -0400 Subject: Auto from nzxt - Tue 30 Jul 2024 08:54:47 PM EDT --- Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md | 34 ++++++++++++++ Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md | 13 ++++++ Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md | 12 +++++ Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md | 64 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Finance/Fundamentals/index.md | 38 ++++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 161 insertions(+) create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/index.md (limited to 'Finance/Fundamentals') diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..854cf42 --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +Don't trade P/L, trade stocks + +90/90/90 + +Price leads sentiment and sentiment drive the narrative. + +Cheapest "insurance" is trend following. + +Naked selling of Options is akin to "Picking pennies of the railway track." + +As soon as you are long options you are long volatility and time is agaisnt you. + +The economy is not a speedboat its a tanker. + +Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking. + +All models are wrong. + +Be Right, Be Early, Be Loud + +Buy protection when you can, not when you must. + +You can trade nonsense but don't believe it + +Don't react like a Pavlovian response machines to the daily market narratives + +Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down + +When a trader start to feel really smart, he is headed for a huge drawdown + +Nothing is ever confirmed until it is pubicly denied + +Solana is best thought as 4xQQQ + diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..db803f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +[[Gross Domestic Products (GDP)]] + +[[ISM Purshasing Manager Index (PMI)]] + +[[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI)]] + + + + +3 types of economic indicator +- Lagging Past (lag 3-6 months) +- Coincident Present +- Leading Future (lag 6-12 months diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d44431c --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ + +Bullish: + - [[Long Call]] + - [[Short Put]] + - + + +Bearish: + + + +Hedging: diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..26e4968 --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +# The Trade Idea Thesis + +Quantitative Analysis: Macro, Sectors & Stock Data + +Qualitative Analysis: The Story. Understanding the company business & commenting on it. + +KPI’s: Understanding the metrics that drive Revenue & Earnings + +Catalyst: Potential event that will drive alpha + +Time Horizon: Shortest time frame that will capture the catalyst(s) + +Price Target: Quant and Volatility analysis + +Trade Structure: Stock, options , spread trade ? Risk management ? + + +## Quantitative Analysis + +Numbers, Numbers and Numbers ! + +EPS0, EPS1, EPS2, PE1, PE2, EG1, EG2, PEG1, PEG2 + +To work out these numbers you would only need stock price, reported EPS and forward looking EPS. + +## Qualitative Analysis + +Why inferior/superior earnings and/or revenue growth ? +What are the drivers of growth ? +What advantages/disadvantages in relation to the sector ? +Will it continue ? +What are the future catalysts ? +Do you agree with the market ? +Will you have conviction medium/long term if in the short term it goes against you ? +Are you willing to buy/short more to back your idea ? +What are the risks ? +What changes the story, what changes your mind if you are wrong ? +Who is the management and is it any good ? +Who are the shareholders ? +What will affect earnings ? +What is the sector doing ? +What is the product ? +How do they fit in the supply chain ? +Who are the suppliers ? +Who are the customers ? +Who is the competition ? +What is the company share of the market ? Gaining / Losing ? + + +## KPI’s + +Most sectors have different KPI’s, find them usually in presentations, earning calls or industry reports. + + +## Catalysts + +Earnings, Buyback, splits, dividends, outlook +Acquisition, Restructuring and Deals +Legal & Regulatory issues +Analyst upgrade / downgrade +Credit upgrade / downgrade +Short squeeze +Conference & Events +Products launches diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3733368 --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +[[The Trade Idea Thesis]] + +[[Indicators]] + +[[Axioms]] + +[[Option Strategies]] + +Theory? + + +Q1 = Janvier,Fevrier,Mars +Q2 = Avril,May,Juin +Q3 = Juillet,Aout,Septembre + + +# Return Formula + +R(n) = (CP(n) - OP(n)) / OP(n) + +Where: + - R(n) = Return in period n + - CP(n) = Close price + - OP(n) = Open price + + +# 11 Major Sector + + | Real Estate | Cyclical | + | Health Care | Value/Defensive | + | Financials | Cyclical | + | Utilities | Value/Defensive | + | Consumer Defensive/Staples | Value/Defensive | + | Consumer Discretionary | Cyclical | + | Communication Services | Cyclical | + | Technology | Growth | + | Materials | Cyclical | + | Energy | Value/Cyclical | -- cgit v1.2.3