From f32194ddf9e295cef45143aa7d8e499b9cd80b9b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: nic Date: Fri, 9 Aug 2024 13:24:32 -0400 Subject: Auto from nzxt - Fri 09 Aug 2024 01:24:32 PM EDT --- Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md | 37 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 37 insertions(+) create mode 100644 Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md (limited to 'Finance/Fundamentals') diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..451ae7c --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +In cycle downturns trend following is what to do. + +The cycle is better seen on the long term +almost always at least weekly or montly data +before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data + +Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles +Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data + +The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer +The 30yr cycle is the big one + +To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively +or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs... +or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend ! + +what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise + +Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle + +Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle) + + + +1790 to 1840 The Bank of the United States Dominates + +1840 to 1875 The Rise of the Railroads + +1875 to 1929 The American Commercial Revolution + +1929 to 1964 The First Magnificent Seven + +1964 to 1993 Free Trade Leads to Global Expansion + +1993 to 2014 The Rise of Fall of the Stock Market + +2014 to Present Technology Stocks Take Over -- cgit v1.2.3