Auto from nzxt - Wed 17 Dec 2025 11:11:26 PM EST

5 files changed, 37 insertions, 97 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
index 946822a..9152992 100644
--- a/Finance/index.md
+++ b/Finance/index.md
@@ -7,6 +7,11 @@
 
 [[Energy Sector]]
 
+Hard stop loss is a must have - never again down 11% in a day in a position
+
+map all past macro event in GLD and SPY charts
+
+
 # Dynamics and logic
 ISM price paid leads inflation
 
diff --git a/Trading.md b/Trading.md
index 1af4e8e..cf14c72 100644
--- a/Trading.md
+++ b/Trading.md
@@ -42,9 +42,19 @@ WBD Buy dec 25 cal @ 0.75$
 - [[wiki4:HON|HON]]
 
 
-# Market Themes (dynamics) (eventually separate into current and future?)
+# Market Themes & Narratives
 
-The bull ended the second week of October. ???
+Did the bull end the second week of October
+
+another leg for silver to 80 / 100 ?
+Papermarket & physicals shenanigans
+
+
+
+midterms - Q1 usually is OK, with the weakness coming in Q2 and Q3 - see chart {{local:img/midterms.png|midterms seasonality}}
+the subsequent quarters after Midterms are the strongest
+
+K-shaped everything...
 
 2026 will be the years for:
 Defense
@@ -58,135 +68,56 @@ Will bio tech continue to lead
 Fannie/Freddie IPO ?
 Us midterms cycle 3mar-3nov
 CCII - blockchain.com spac ?
+GOLD 1934 playbook? - Bessent "monetising the balance sheet assets"
+MSTR BTC risk
+Oil Shock risk
 
-another leg for silver to 80 ?
 
-If Germany truly intends to build the "strongest conventional army in Europe" with €650B over 5 years, there is no path to achieve this without Volkswagen Group's manufacturing capacity
+# Notes & Observations on markets dynamics
 
-privite lendings stress find shorts >
+- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... {{local:img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg}}
+- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
 
-I have to start having hard stop loses, I have to tell myself NEVER NEVER CAN I BE DOWN 11% in a position after 1 day in a trade...
+- If Germany truly intends to build the "strongest conventional army in Europe" with €650B over 5 years, there is no path to achieve this without Volkswagen Group's manufacturing capacity
+
+- The Russell is in the process of having a proper breakout that will be a signal people look back on retrospectively similar to 2021
+
+- (2028-2030?) handset to headset transition
 
-- GOLD 1934 playbook? - Bessent "monetising the balance sheet assets"
-- short turnaround ai bubble pop - prepare trades in advance
-- Chinese supply chain wars - Rare earth CCP export control
-dec 1 start
-- pentagon... THE ERA OF VITOL, GUNVOR, GLENCORE, TRAFIGURA AND MERCURIA IS COMING TO AN END ?
- The Russell is in the process of having a proper breakout that will be a signal people look back on retrospectively similar to 2021
-- handset to headset transition
-- Ad agencies to be hurt by GenAI (IPG, OMC, WPP)
-- GAG (trump admin won't take care of the deficit, it was just a big joke, they will pump bags so DC can service more debt)
-- Golden Dome - $ASTS $RKLB $BKSY $RDW $ESLT
 - copper deficit by 2026 ?
 What we saw in the last couple of weeks was likely a preview of a wider “unwind” that may (or may not!) take place later down the line.
 
 Ai buildout energy high quality : GEV, CEG, VRT
 
 - Canada being greeked - Greeks had borrowed money from the global markets in order to buy houses massively. They thought that house ownership somehow, someone, somewhere would produce goods and services for them
-- greeked - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-housing-market-is-no-longer-a-wealth-building-engine-as-home-prices-continue-to-slump/ar-AA1LyI8C?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
+https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-housing-market-is-no-longer-a-wealth-building-engine-as-home-prices-continue-to-slump/ar-AA1LyI8C?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
 https://www.newsweek.com/majority-companies-hiking-prices-cover-tariffs-kpmg-10840802
 
 
-midterms - Q1 usually is OK, with the weakness coming in Q2 and Q3 - see chart {{local:img/midterms.png|midterms seasonality}}
-the subsequent quarters after Midterms are the strongest
-
 - https://redlib.privacyredirect.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1of1r16/short_quantum_ionq_qbts_rgti_qubt_btq_laes_cccx/
 
 
 China planning to elevate Gold to HQLA(High-Quality Liquid Assets) status for repo and infrastructure funding for BRICS nations
 
-KRE good bellweather
-
-Neptune 29degree pices = peak bs in the world - GAG
-
-End of april move - rik find out why exactly... 4nov vid
 
 Take a peak at Carvana’s, Apollo’s, Owl’s, KKR’s, Blackstone’s, or anyone else in the private credit space. The stink of that sector is starting to become over bearing and is leaking. One of these names is going to take it on the chin hard at some point in the next 6 - 12 months, no one knows who. Apollo is probably the best in the space, but Enron’s collapse crushed the good utilities as well. Maybe Apollo is the best and won’t suffer too much, they’re still gonna get taken down.
 
 Burry's got NVDA 12/17/2027 110P
 
 
-Silver A massive paper market was built to suppress volatility. The paper market is now estimated at 50x the physical... price supression will break leading to higher price and possibly no physical silver
 
 https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-yields-pressure-automakers-it-rethinks-2035-combustion-car-ban-2025-12-15/
 https://www.inboundlogistics.com/articles/pedal-to-the-metal-general-motors-orders-suppliers-to-exit-china-supply-chains/
-# citrini
+
+# Citrini
 We think healthcare will be ground zero for phase 2 of AI, expect significant improvement in speed and efficiency in identifing drug candidate will led to significant tailwind for the drug devellopement supply chain.
 
-# sleepy sol
+# Sleepy Sol
 
-something like, small pullback into Wednesday (ish) rally into new year, chop around for a bit, puke in February or March down to somewhere between 6300 - 6500. Depending on how aggressively tech is puking, as that will lead us lower, will determine if we stop there and then rally up to 7,200 - 7,500 by early 2027, or if we’re done done levels of killed.
+chop around for a bit, puke in February or March down to somewhere between 6300 - 6500. Depending on how aggressively tech is puking, as that will lead us lower, will determine if we stop there and then rally up to 7,200 - 7,500 by early 2027, or if we’re done done levels of killed.
 
 FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT  END GOAL
 
-Long end of every gov is starting to collapse as inflation or idea of inflation gets into the system
-if energy does not work in the next few weeks, will not work until q2 2026 ... ?
-
 end 26 HAS 100-115$ PT
 
 sleepy sol - RDDT 2027 250 calls on the next touch of 141.
-
-
-It’s only 1997 or oct 1999 ?
-
-2026
-MSTR BTC risk
-Oil Shock risk
-Ai bubble bursting
-
-
-
-map past macro event in GLD and SPY charts
-
-
-# Thesis
-
-Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession)
-Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini
-
-Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation
-
-Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
-4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
-
-
-# Themes & setups
-
-- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24...
-- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where?
-- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
-- Commodities & platinum deficit
-- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy
-- Future was ai just a meme pullback
-- value/grow spread largest in 40 years
-- Humanoid robot theme meme wave
-- Bond 3std move in 2025?
-- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April
-- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season
--  Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year
-- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth
-
-### ITPM 2025 outlook
-- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets
-- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper
-- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows)
-- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump
-- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ?
-- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable
-- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now
-- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
-- 10/2y as steepened/normalised
-- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth
-- Energy cost
-
-
-# Alex notes
-- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in
-- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions
-- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy)
-- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy)
-- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold
-- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go
-- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25)
-- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50
-- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration
diff --git a/arcanum/Astrology.md b/arcanum/Astrology.md
index 9c93da1..d66562e 100644
--- a/arcanum/Astrology.md
+++ b/arcanum/Astrology.md
@@ -58,3 +58,6 @@ they use venus to show you, the revealing of the method, for me venus show itsel
 Have you seen the fish auguries at the start of the month ? 2 deepsea fishes one dark (5feb) , one beautiful (9feb) came out and crashed on beaches. Picsces season going to be hot !
 
 reason to use zero aries when looking at the world is because houses aren't relevant for the whole world based on your location
+
+
+Neptune 29degree pices = peak bs in the world - GAG
diff --git a/arcanum/index.md b/arcanum/index.md
index dddd791..867ad5a 100644
--- a/arcanum/index.md
+++ b/arcanum/index.md
@@ -41,6 +41,7 @@ Mistletoe is a parasitic plant
 [[ekrit]]
 
 Howler - a stupid and obvious mistake
+The howlers of hell's mouth 
 
 Selection for Societal Sanity
 S3 is a system for controlling human will and consciousness
diff --git a/img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg b/img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8f12959
--- /dev/null
+++ b/img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg