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+## Ticker: NYSE:ABR
+### Arbor Realty Trust
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+Two business segments: Structured Loan Origination and Investment Business
+Invest in the multifamily, single-family rental (“SFR”) and commercial real estate markets
+Also invest in real estate-related joint ventures and may directly acquire real property and invest in real estate-related notes and certain mortgage-related securities.
+Organized to qualify as a real estate investment trust (“REIT”)
+We provide a suite of comprehensive customized financing solutions to meet the various needs of borrowers. We target borrowers whose options may be limited by conventional bank financing.
+
+# timeframe
+default by max may 2025
+
+# 16 feb earnings
+Arbor CEO has just proclaimed that delinquencies are in the low single digits and the CLO data that Viceroy obtained from the trustee is wrong.
+
+This is a blatant lie, and easily verifyable
+
+# viceroy research
+PT = 0$
+Viceroy’s dive into Arbor’s CLOs suggest its entire loan book is distressed
+and underlying collateral is vastly overstated. These loans do not qualify for refinancing anywhere, and
+substantially all mature within the next 18 months. (written nov 16 2023)
+
+0% to 5% rates as derailed all ABR projects
+
+The current underlying DSCR of Arbor’s ~$7.6b CLOs is about 0.63x meaning their OI covers only 63% of their total debt service.
+There is no feasible rate cuts in the next 18 months that could salvage these projects.
+
+Arbor’s business model is to finance bridge loans for multifamily residential unit investments, typically through renovation periods. After renovation, Arbor can then refinance these bridge loans into agency loans.
+
+In order to access liquidity against these floating rate bridge loans, Arbor established Collateralized Loan
+Obligation facilities (CLOs)
+
+Billions of dollars of loans in CLOs were made to finfluencers and real estate “guru” syndicates who have
+zero real estate investment backgrounds. ex: Elisa Zhang
+
+Significant portion of the properties underlying the CLOs have atrocious reviews, including pictures, and
+have not been rehabilitated. Some properties have already been condemned and labelled as slums.
+
+Poor maintenance, poor security, vandalism, theft, and shootings are widely reported among properties.
+
+Lack of authentic good review
+
+Management appears to be raising rents of properties without any actual rehabilitation.
+
+The only feasible way that we believe Arbor can continue as a going concern is by refinancing bridging loans. Per
+above, we note that doing this is effectively just prolonging a catastrophe
+
+Arbor’s loan book substantially matures over the next 18 months. As shown in Section 6 below, new
+originations are fading quickly in high-rate environments that do not support most multifamily rehabilitation
+bridging projects
+
+NOI figures have not improved.
+
+The CLOs will inevitably breach covenants and become distressed
+
+Horrible management of propeties
+
+Severals lenders in Arbor’s CLOs (that arbor made loan's to) are in financial troubles
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/ASTS.md b/Finance/Ideas/ASTS.md
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+#Ticker: NASDAQ: ASTS
+##AST SpaceMobile Inc
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+
+Satellite designer & manufacturer.
+Building what we believe is the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to be accessible by standard mobile phones (The SpaceMobile Service)
+Global coverage for users
+The SpaceMobile Service currently is planned to be provided by a network of 168 high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO
+
+We are partnering with Mobile Network Operators
+
+We currently are targeting to achieve substantial global mobile coverage after the launch of a total of 110 satellites by the end of 2024 and multiple input multiple output ("MIMO") capabilities during 2025 after the launch of a total of 168 satellites.
+
+ The SpaceMobile Service has not yet generated revenue and is not expected to generate revenue until after the commercial launch of the SpaceMobile Service
+
+  accessible to any standard, unmodified, off-the-shelf mobile phone or 2G/3G/4G LTE/5G and IoT-enabled device
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/HE.md b/Finance/Ideas/HE.md
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+## Ticker: NYSE:HE
+### Hawaiien Electric
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+HEI is a holding company with its subsidiaries principally engaged in electric utility, banking, and non-regulated renewable/sustainable infrastructure businesses (Electric utility, Bank, and Other.)
+HEI’s sources of funds are dividends or other distributions from its operating subsidiaries, borrowings, and sales of equity.
+
+Electric Utility: Hawaiian Electric and its operating utility subsidiaries, Hawaii Electric Light Company, Inc. (Hawaii Electric Light) and Maui Electric Company, Limited (Maui Electric) provide service to approximately 95% of Hawaii’s population - 72% of earnings
+
+Bank: American Savings Bank (ASB) 3rd largest in Hawaii - 28% of earnings
+
+Other: corporate-level operating, general and administrative expenses and the results of Pacific Current, LLC (Pacific Current)
+
+August 8, 2023 was Hawaii fire incident - Liability risk
+
+estimate damages cost - 5.5 B - https://www.facebook.com/countyofmaui/posts/pfbid02kwcpL5MaspoEpkmqR6AEmRwMevdrvgdtinPTFy5ogvHLxNHig8Hm2UCYF7XLT9xGl
+estimate insurance companies exposure - 3.2 B - https://www.aol.com/news/lahaina-wildfire-insured-property-loss-095355255.html
+
+Economic toll of Hawaii wildfires could climb to $16 billion - https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report/the-cost-of-the-maui-fire/
+paying that would bankrupt company instantly
+
+
+Credit rating downgrade by S&P - https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3041908
+
+# Kpi's
+advanced smart meters ?
+
+### RESEARCH: NYSE: PCG
+similar situation, that of the 2018 Californian Camp Fire, the Pacific Gas & Electric Company was found liable, and these liabilities were part of the reasons why the company filed for bankruptcy in 2020
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/LIN.md b/Finance/Ideas/LIN.md
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+
+## Ticker: NASDAQ:LIN
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+LINDE is the largest industrial gas company worldwide. It's primary products are:
+atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and rare gases)
+process gases (carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, and acetylene )
+also designs and builds equipment that produces industrial gases
+
+Linde serves a diverse group of industries including healthcare, chemicals and energy, manufacturing, metals and mining, food and beverage, and electronics.
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/LPG.md b/Finance/Ideas/LPG.md
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+
+#Ticker: NYSE: LPG
+## Dorian LPG Ltd
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+
+Transport LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) since 2002
+Own and operate VLGCs (Very Large Gas Carriers)
+
+Our fleet currently consists of twenty-two VLGCs, including our nineteen new fuel-efficient 84,000 cbm ECO-design VLGCs, or our ECO VLGCs, one 82,000 cbm VLGC, and two time chartered-in VLGC
+
+The twenty VLGCs in our fleet, excluding the two time chartered-in vessels, have an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 1.7 million cbm and an average age of 7.5 years as of May 27, 2022
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/PAYX.md b/Finance/Ideas/PAYX.md
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+## Ticker: NASDAQ:PAYX
+### Paychex inc.
+
+ fiscal year that ends May 31st
+
+# list all competitors & make basket
+
+# Qualitative
+Provider of human capital management (“HCM”) solutions for human resources (“HR”), payroll, benefits, and insurance
+
+As of May 31, 2023, we served approximately 740,000 payroll and PEO clients.  - KPI ?
+
+The key features of our solutions are:
+•Comprehensive cloud-based platform optimized to meet the HR and payroll needs of small- and medium-sized organizations;
+•Streamlined workforce management that combines technology with flexible support options;
+•Modern, mobile, and intuitive user experience and self-service capabilities;
+•Scalable and customizable platform that allows clients the ability to add services as they grow;
+•Software as a service, or “SaaS”, delivery model that reduces total cost of ownership for our clients; and
+•Expertise in HR and payroll with our technology backed by over 250 compliance experts and approximately 700 HR business professionals.
+
+Over 50% of our revenues are gained from our services beyond payroll processing.
+
+
+proactively aid our clients in navigating macroeconomic challenges, legislative changes, and other complexities they face
+
+help customers more effectively hire, engage, train, and retain top talent
+
+HR & compliance
+
+Paychex Flex® platform
+Paychex Flex is our proprietary HCM SaaS platform that provides seamless workforce management
+suite of solutions including recruiting, onboarding, HR, time and attendance and employee benefits. &  function-focused analytics
+
+contract with client generally do not containt specified contract period - Client retention should be a good KPI
+For fiscal 2023, client retention was in the range of 82% to 83% of our beginning client base.
+
+Management solutions:
+-Payroll processing solutions
+-Payroll tax administration solutions
+-Employee payment solutions
+-Regulatory compliance solutions
+-HR solutions
+-Retirement solutions administration
+-HR administration solutions
+
+
+We have one primary national competitor - Who ?
+
+
+focus on smid business
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/TRAK.md b/Finance/Ideas/TRAK.md
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+
+## Ticker: NYSE:TRAK ( Formely Park City Group )
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+Repositrak is a SaaS provider that facilitate compliance with FSMA. It collect and sorts all vendor compliance documents related to food safety, regulatory compliance, insurance ect... It partners with retailers, wholesalers, and product suppliers to help them source, vet, and transact with their suppliers in order to accelerate sales, control risks, and improve supply chain efficiencies, and source hard-to-get-things.
+
+services for multi-store retail chains, wholesalers and distributors, and their suppliers.
+
+It is the world's largest food traceability and regulatory compliance network
+
+Repositrak is the industry standard & largest platform of its kind
+
+The Company’s services are grouped in three application suites:
+(i) ReposiTrak MarketPlace (“MarketPlace”), encompassing the Company’s supplier discovery and B2B e-commerce solutions, which helps the Company’s customers find new suppliers;
+(ii) ReposiTrak Compliance and Food Safety (“Compliance and Food Safety”) solutions, which help the Company’s customers vet suppliers to mitigate the risk of doing business with these suppliers;
+(iii) ReposiTrak’s Supply Chain (“Supply Chain”) solutions, which help the Company’s customers to more efficiently manage their various transactions with their suppliers.
+
+Main customers  U.S. consumer retail sector for food
+
+## Catalyst: FSMA enforcement on January 20, 2026.
+
+What is the Food Safety Modernization Act:
+
+Aim to prevent foodborne illnesses by giving the FDA new authority to regulate the way foods are grown, harvested and processed. The law grants the FDA a number of new powers, including mandatory recall authority.
+
+Considered the first major piece of federal legislation addressing food safety since 1938.
+
+What documents are required ?: all records relating to the manufacture, processing, packing, distribution, receipt, holding, or importation
+
+ goals to enhance traceability, improve predictive analytics, respond more rapidly to outbreaks, address new business models, reduce contamination of food, and foster the development of stronger food safety cultures.
+
+one particular section of the Food Safety Modernization Act (“FSMA”), Section 204(d) which has to deal with traceability, was left incomplete when the regulation was enacted in 2011
+FDA been working to define exactly what traceability means and what is required to comply with that section of the law.
+
+As part of the 2020 “New Era” announcement, FDA published the Food Traceability List or (“FTL”). FDA used a “risk assessment model” to identify 16 of the highest-risk categories to start with. There is not a single grocery retailer who does not sell these items. These 16 categories represent thousands of individual items and FDA has made it clear in its communications the categories on the FTL are only the beginning. FDA states that they would “encourage the voluntary adoption of these practices industry-wide,” which means more categories are expected to be added over time.
+
+For traceability, FDA requires the capture, creation and sharing of specific key data elements (“KDE”) at each designated Critical Tracking Event (“CTE”) for every item and every shipment. FDA also requires the data be stored for two years and be retrievable and presented to them within 24 hours upon request. FSMA 204 is ultimately about recording all movement of inventories through the supply chain. The result is an enormous amount of data to manage. At the root, it is a supply chain data management issue, which is ReposiTrak’s core expertise. That’s why we’ve made it our goal to develop a traceability solution that’s easy, inexpensive and exceeds FDA’s requirements with the guidance of industry thought leaders gathered in the Food Traceability Leadership Consortium. As the largest connected network of food suppliers, wholesalers and retailers in the world, the ReposiTrak Traceability Network® is well positioned to provide end-to-end traceability to provide a safer food supply chain, tighten control on food waste and implement a food recall response that saves lives and money.
+
+## KPI's
+
+How many customers ?
+
+As of June 30, 2023, the Company employed a total of 69 employees.
+
+
+the renewal rates of subscriptions
+
+
+## OTher TBC
+
+Can be compared ? with UNH & obamacare/ACA introduced on march 23, 2010
+
+Management with industry experience: company funded to remedy a problem with their food company
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/index.md b/Finance/Ideas/index.md
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+[[ABR]]
+
+[[ASTS]]
+
+[[HE]]
+
+[[LPG]]
+
+[[LIN]]
+
+[[PAYX]]
+
+[[TRAK]]
+
+# Russia
+0486.hk - rusal
+SBER.ME - sberbank
+EPAM - US BASED - BELARUS FOUNDER
+BGEO.l - Bank georgia
+
+
+# rate cut play - why ?
+BLND
+RKT
+
+Prepare short MSTR / BTC setup
+
+DMRC
+- High short interest
+- working witht he big boys on digital watermark
+- might come in before election ? catalyst
+
+Regarding TIN, I’ve mentioned the only 2 ways to invest is Alphamin and MLX in Australia
+
+
+PVH - owns both calvin klein & tommy hilfinger
+Kering - owns Gucci
+
+
+vitalfarms
+Each box contains info about, and the webcam! address of the specific farm that sources the eggs.
+That's a warm and fuzzy empathy button click for female consumers.
+
+
+Compiling UAS/UAV names
+$avav $rtx $lilm $evtl $amba $achr $ktos $joby $noc  $cgy $keyw $lhx $gd $hon $lmt $tdy $tdg $rtx $txt $eh $pruia $parro $drshf $rcat $dpro $leg $blde $swks $jbl $irdm $kmtuy
+drone - RCAT
+
+@SnowKitten200 - BTU
+
+AI theme still young...
+
+Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
+Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
+
+
+recious metals list
+
+Gold
+$GDX $GDXJ $NEM $GOLD $EGO $EQX $KGC $IAG $HMY
+
+Silver
+$SIL $SILJ $AEM $PAAS
+
+
+- AXT Inc. (AXTI): Manufactures compound semiconductor substrates, including gallium arsenide and indium phosphide. Category: Raw Materials and Components.
+
+- CEVA, Inc. (CEVA): Licenses wireless connectivity and smart sensing technologies. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- CVD Equipment Corporation (CVV): Designs and manufactures equipment for the development and production of advanced materials. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): Develops and manufactures systems for burning-in and testing logic, optical, and memory integrated circuits. Category: Testing and Packaging.
+
+- Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA): Develops high-definition video compression and image processing products. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO): Provides technologies and RF solutions for mobile, infrastructure, and aerospace/defense applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF): Specializes in silicon carbide and gallium nitride materials and devices. Category: Raw Materials and Components.
+
+- MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI): Develops and manufactures semiconductor products for data center, telecommunications, and industrial applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): Operates semiconductor foundries, manufacturing integrated circuits with geometries ranging from 1.0 to 0.13 micron. Category: Foundries.
+
+- Bruker Corporation (BRKR): Provides high-performance scientific instruments and high-value analytical and diagnostic solutions. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Onto Innovation (ONTO): Provides process control tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including inspection and metrology. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS): Designs and manufactures power conversion, measurement, and control solutions for industrial applications. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- ANSYS, Inc. (ANSS): Develops and markets engineering simulation software used for predicting how product designs will behave in real-world environments. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- Keysight Technologies (KEYS): Produces electronic design and test instrumentation. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR): Develops wet processing technology and equipment for semiconductor devices. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): Designs integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP): Manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog, and Flash-IP integrated circuits. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB): Designs and markets a range of silicon, software, and solutions for the Internet of Things, internet infrastructure, industrial automation, consumer, and automotive markets. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS): Produces semiconductor products for use in radio frequency and mobile communications systems. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA): Develops human interface solutions including touch, display, and biometrics products for a range of electronic devices. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI): Specializes in data conversion, signal processing, and power management technology. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS): Provides electronic design automation software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD): Supplies industrial gases and related equipment to various industries including semiconductors. Category: Raw Materials and Components.