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+## Ticker: NYSE:ABR
+### Arbor Realty Trust
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+Two business segments: Structured Loan Origination and Investment Business
+Invest in the multifamily, single-family rental (“SFR”) and commercial real estate markets
+Also invest in real estate-related joint ventures and may directly acquire real property and invest in real estate-related notes and certain mortgage-related securities.
+Organized to qualify as a real estate investment trust (“REIT”)
+We provide a suite of comprehensive customized financing solutions to meet the various needs of borrowers. We target borrowers whose options may be limited by conventional bank financing.
+
+# timeframe
+default by max may 2025
+
+# 16 feb earnings
+Arbor CEO has just proclaimed that delinquencies are in the low single digits and the CLO data that Viceroy obtained from the trustee is wrong.
+
+This is a blatant lie, and easily verifyable
+
+# viceroy research
+PT = 0$
+Viceroy’s dive into Arbor’s CLOs suggest its entire loan book is distressed
+and underlying collateral is vastly overstated. These loans do not qualify for refinancing anywhere, and
+substantially all mature within the next 18 months. (written nov 16 2023)
+
+0% to 5% rates as derailed all ABR projects
+
+The current underlying DSCR of Arbor’s ~$7.6b CLOs is about 0.63x meaning their OI covers only 63% of their total debt service.
+There is no feasible rate cuts in the next 18 months that could salvage these projects.
+
+Arbor’s business model is to finance bridge loans for multifamily residential unit investments, typically through renovation periods. After renovation, Arbor can then refinance these bridge loans into agency loans.
+
+In order to access liquidity against these floating rate bridge loans, Arbor established Collateralized Loan
+Obligation facilities (CLOs)
+
+Billions of dollars of loans in CLOs were made to finfluencers and real estate “guru” syndicates who have
+zero real estate investment backgrounds. ex: Elisa Zhang
+
+Significant portion of the properties underlying the CLOs have atrocious reviews, including pictures, and
+have not been rehabilitated. Some properties have already been condemned and labelled as slums.
+
+Poor maintenance, poor security, vandalism, theft, and shootings are widely reported among properties.
+
+Lack of authentic good review
+
+Management appears to be raising rents of properties without any actual rehabilitation.
+
+The only feasible way that we believe Arbor can continue as a going concern is by refinancing bridging loans. Per
+above, we note that doing this is effectively just prolonging a catastrophe
+
+Arbor’s loan book substantially matures over the next 18 months. As shown in Section 6 below, new
+originations are fading quickly in high-rate environments that do not support most multifamily rehabilitation
+bridging projects
+
+NOI figures have not improved.
+
+The CLOs will inevitably breach covenants and become distressed
+
+Horrible management of propeties
+
+Severals lenders in Arbor’s CLOs (that arbor made loan's to) are in financial troubles