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# Thesis
Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession)
Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini
Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation
Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
# Themes & setups
- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24...
- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where?
- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
- Commodities & platinum deficit
- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy
- Future was ai just a meme pullback
- value/grow spread largest in 40 years
- Humanoid robot theme meme wave
- Bond 3std move in 2025?
- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April
- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season
- Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year
- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth
# ITPM 2025 outlook
- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets
- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper
- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows)
- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump
- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ?
- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable
- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now
- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
- 10/2y as steepened/normalised
- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth
- Energy cost
# Alex notes
- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in
- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions
- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy)
- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy)
- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold
- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go
- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25)
- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50
- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration
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