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# GDP print
what matter most is real fixed private investment.
This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
# Macro
- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z
- Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. - covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers
- Israel-Iran war
- ukraine
OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525
5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH
' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds.
Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ??
01/08/24 - Huge selloff started: Why ? - valuation became unatractive ?
- israel/iran ?
- only slowdown priced ? not recession yet ...
EMification of usa markets
Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency
like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ...
slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982
compare 74-76 to 22-24...
To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses
"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen
Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024
Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting
Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core)
former "safe heaven"
- dividend stock
- Utilities
- Staple
- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting
Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ?
Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
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