1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
|
# Citrini
[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
# SpiralCal
Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
works best when market emotionals
excluding the 2010's historically one of 3 sector is the best perfoming since the 1980s - Consumer staples, Energy & Utlities
since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
***Cesi & 10y t-note correlation***
Citi group economic surprise index
a recession is a process that starts way before it’s officially dated and never hinges on a single data point.
Strat: Buy just before close on friday and sell monday morning gap up
# Emerging markets
Big 4 are BRICS = BRASIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA
Characterics of emerging markets compared to Develloped markets
- less liquid
- less volume
- Higher Political risk
- Opaque regulation
- Lower P/E at the index lvl
- Investor Crowding into stock with growth
- low free float
- more pro cyclical
- high and uncertain correlation to fx exchange rate
What not to do in EM
- Think you are a EM investor
- Have pair trade accross Developed market and EM
- Believe you have political insight
- Be surprised if the unexpected happens and nobody cares
# Manipulation of LIBOR during GFC
- real manipulation done by central bankers & way worse than traders who where jailed
- in 07-08 all banks were consistenlty lying about the true cost of borrowing dollars by lowballing their funding rate which lead to a massively depressed LIBOR
- Peter Johnson - The low ball tapes
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf
|
