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[Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)
[Tickers](/Tickers/index.md)
[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
[[Energy Sector]]
Hard stop loss is a must have - never again down 11% in a day in a position
map all past macro event in GLD and SPY charts
# Dynamics and logic
ISM price paid leads inflation
Fed rate below inflation fuels growth (how?, easieer to finance yourself?)
Fed rate above inflation put downward pressure on growth
probability = succesful outcomes / total outcomes
odds = succesful outcome : unsucessful outcomes
1:(1/p-1) where p expressed as decimals
Notably because of dividends, Healthcare & Utilities are the refuge in low growth environment
if opinion on forex express it via stocks
If started positon half of max position can cut stp loss by half
Start by analysing Volatility ATR of the stock to set initial hard stp loss and soft target
Jolts vs ADp vs NFP
more jobs = more consomption
every one who as a job is constently spending $ every M to fund their lifestyle
one person income is one person consomption
Labour mkt and consumer spending is both sides of the same coin
Positive correlation between Nominal GDP growth rate & Nominal interest rates
things that do well in deflationary env - Utilities, Consumer staples, Low P/E stocks (not growth)
Every company in theory if not shriking should grow at least at GDP + Inflation
Inflation - 2%
GDP - 3%
5%
then assume the growth of the total TAM fo the business lets say 3%
8% growth is now the baseline, where you get the multiples, multiples the company should trade at
8% * 2 = 16 should be at 16x times multiples
When the price of money, interest rates, on Nominal and Real bais above or below where Nominal growth is, the surplus is one of the main driver of liquidity.
ex: If inflation running at 3% and Interest rates below that lvl or you have nominal growth at 5% and Nominal Rates below that level then that create more money in the system because comp[anies are operating on a nominal basis. They can finance themselves cheaper.
In past Dollar was backed by gold. Today secured by financial assets. Most important Financial assets are treasuries. Treasuries are secured by gov revenue. Gov revenues = Tax receipt.
# COSTLY ERROR
WTF WHY ARE THE CHART & BID NOT THE SAME AS MARKET PRICE IN ACCOUNT TAB ???
WTF I TRADED FUTURES THINKING I HAD LIVE DATA BUT WAS DELAYED 10min - FUCK 2379$ error would would have been a profit otherwise !
Solid thesis is not a hedge, exucution is
Technical / Momentum Setups
This is where price action becomes process, not art or retail mythology.
Technical setups matter. But not because you drew a flag on a chart and called it conviction.
I use trendlines. But not in isolation. I care when a trendline coincides with:
Anchored VWAPs from prior catalysts (earnings, guidance, gap days)
Volume areas that absorbed selling during prior stress
Key Moving Averages
Dealer hedging zones / known gamma pivots
Where price has respected it multiple times on volume
In context, a trendline isn't necessarily a signal. It's a potential decision zone, where flow either confirms or rejects. It prompts the question: are sellers still in control, or has the tape shifted? Are passive bids starting to take the lead?
Here's how I classify high-probability technical setups:
Risk Ignition: Multi-day coiling range after a directional impulse → sharp unwind of weak positioning = asymmetry.
Reclaims: Name undercuts prior low, flushes weak hands, then reclaims the level on volume. Your signal isn't the low, it's the acceptance above it.
Range expansion: Tight tape, then expansion into space, especially if supported by flows or macro backdrop.
Trend retest holds: Multi-week trendlines respected on a low-vol pullback into macro risk (CPI/FOMC/NFP), followed by a reclaim = risk-on signal.
What matters most is how the price trades at those levels. Not that it gets there, but what happens when it does.
I guess what I am trying to say is that strong hands buy structure and weak hands chase. Your job is to lean into those control zones, where you can define risk, size with intent, and scale into conviction when the market confirms.
# SpiralCal
Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
works best when market emotionals
excluding the 2010's historically one of 3 sector is the best perfoming since the 1980s - Consumer staples, Energy & Utlities
since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
***Cesi & 10y t-note correlation***
Citi group economic surprise index
a recession is a process that starts way before it’s officially dated and never hinges on a single data point.
Strat: Buy just before close on friday and sell monday morning gap up
# Emerging markets
Big 4 are BRICS = BRASIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA
Characterics of emerging markets compared to Develloped markets
- less liquid
- less volume
- Higher Political risk
- Opaque regulation
- Lower P/E at the index lvl
- Investor Crowding into stock with growth
- low free float
- more pro cyclical
- high and uncertain correlation to fx exchange rate
What not to do in EM
- Think you are a EM investor
- Have pair trade accross Developed market and EM
- Believe you have political insight
- Be surprised if the unexpected happens and nobody cares
# Manipulation of LIBOR during GFC
- real manipulation done by central bankers & way worse than traders who where jailed
- in 07-08 all banks were consistenlty lying about the true cost of borrowing dollars by lowballing their funding rate which lead to a massively depressed LIBOR
- Peter Johnson - The low ball tapes
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf
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