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[[The Trade Idea Thesis]]
hello from nzxt
[[Financial Terms]]
[[Financial Axioms]]
[[The Business Cycle]]
[[Macro]]
### IDEAS VS RESEARCH VS NOTES
[Ideas](/Ideas/index.md)
[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
https://kalshi.com/ - macro and pop culture casino.
implement rainbow logic on charts
every trade ask: 1- what would change my mind about the thesis ?
2- plan where to cut if things go wrong or where to take profit
Alexandre Harfouche
sankey diagram for income statement
Solami is best thought as 4xQQQ
solana plan
- follow VIP addresses
- Bot MAV & 5min quick 10000X
- make a token?
Trend following is the most cost efficient hedge
# indexes
OECD leading index too volatile to be usefull
Architecture Billings index...
# SpiralCal
Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
works best when market emotionals
since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more important
Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)
# Correlations
Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.
# Volatility
If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
QRA : issue bill its stimulant
issue bonds its removing liquidity from market
The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
Policy maker want wealthflation bcs they can get tax proceeds and donor make alot of money
April tax day...
Sahm Rule = looking at the slope of an average
seven types of income
- Earned
- Profit
- Interest
- Rental
- Capital Gain (vs profit?)
- Dividend
- Royalties
# GDP print
what matter most is real fixed private investment.
This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
https://theconversation.com/why-central-banks-are-too-powerful-and-have-created-our-inflation-crisis-by-the-banking-expert-who-pioneered-quantitative-easing-201158
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