path: root/Finance/index.md

[Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)     + definitions + theory like business cycle + spiral cat theory ... + History??


[Research](/Research/index.md)

# or defenitions more quick access here  - call it Financial_Dictionary

Research ? Ideas(rename one to tickers??) + Themes + strategies

Current? + dairy ?



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[[Financial Terms]]

[[The Business Cycle]]

[[Macro]]



https://kalshi.com/ - macro and pop culture casino.

implement rainbow logic on charts



every trade ask: 1- what would change my mind about the thesis ?
		 2- plan where to cut if things go wrong or where to take profit


Alexandre Harfouche


sankey diagram for income statement



solana plan
- follow VIP addresses
- Bot MAV & 5min quick 10000X
- make a token?

Trend following is the most cost efficient hedge

# indexes

 OECD leading index too volatile to be usefull
 Architecture Billings index...

# SpiralCal

Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon

works best when market emotionals


since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol

Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more important

Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)

# Correlations
Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.

# Volatility

If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.

when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy



QRA : issue bill its stimulant
      issue bonds its removing liquidity from market

The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans


Policy maker want wealthflation bcs they can get tax proceeds and donor make alot of money


April tax day...

Sahm Rule = looking at the slope of an average



# GDP print
what matter most is real fixed private investment.

This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.

Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend

For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
 the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements

  The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.

In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt


https://theconversation.com/why-central-banks-are-too-powerful-and-have-created-our-inflation-crisis-by-the-banking-expert-who-pioneered-quantitative-easing-201158A




When putting up a option spread always write first because the credit you get is your "budget" for the trade

Druckenmiller: "I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction."

Twitter: when a group of low IQ retards start shouting loudly in unison, they do the work for you…

Positioning is everything



# stock picking advices
- During a bear market, monitor the outperformers in significantly underperforming industries. They will be the best stocks of the coming bull.
- When the bear gives way to the bull, buy the companies that IPO’d during the bear market.



- Stanley Druckenmiller
Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.




Money (the kind worth having in any case) is usually downstream of character and relationships

Character (mental/physical health and skill) —> relationships —> wealth


"" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....



# Russia
0486.hk - rusal
SBER.ME - sberbank
EPAM - US BASED - BELARUS FOUNDER
BGEO.l - Bank georgia


# rate cut play - why ?
BLND
RKT

Prepare short MSTR / BTC setup

DMRC
- High short interest
- working witht he big boys on digital watermark
- might come in before election ? catalyst

Regarding TIN, I’ve mentioned the only 2 ways to invest is Alphamin and MLX in Australia


PVH - owns both calvin klein & tommy hilfinger
Kering - owns Gucci


vitalfarms
Each box contains info about, and the webcam! address of the specific farm that sources the eggs.
That's a warm and fuzzy empathy button click for female consumers.


Compiling UAS/UAV names
$avav $rtx $lilm $evtl $amba $achr $ktos $joby $noc  $cgy $keyw $lhx $gd $hon $lmt $tdy $tdg $rtx $txt $eh $pruia $parro $drshf $rcat $dpro $leg $blde $swks $jbl $irdm $kmtuy
drone - RCAT

@SnowKitten200 - BTU

AI theme still young...

Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV


recious metals list

Gold
$GDX $GDXJ $NEM $GOLD $EGO $EQX $KGC $IAG $HMY

Silver
$SIL $SILJ $AEM $PAAS


- AXT Inc. (AXTI): Manufactures compound semiconductor substrates, including gallium arsenide and indium phosphide. Category: Raw Materials and Components.

- CEVA, Inc. (CEVA): Licenses wireless connectivity and smart sensing technologies. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.

- CVD Equipment Corporation (CVV): Designs and manufactures equipment for the development and production of advanced materials. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.

- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): Develops and manufactures systems for burning-in and testing logic, optical, and memory integrated circuits. Category: Testing and Packaging.

- Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA): Develops high-definition video compression and image processing products. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.

- Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO): Provides technologies and RF solutions for mobile, infrastructure, and aerospace/defense applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF): Specializes in silicon carbide and gallium nitride materials and devices. Category: Raw Materials and Components.

- MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI): Develops and manufactures semiconductor products for data center, telecommunications, and industrial applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): Operates semiconductor foundries, manufacturing integrated circuits with geometries ranging from 1.0 to 0.13 micron. Category: Foundries.

- Bruker Corporation (BRKR): Provides high-performance scientific instruments and high-value analytical and diagnostic solutions. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.

- Onto Innovation (ONTO): Provides process control tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including inspection and metrology. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.

- Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS): Designs and manufactures power conversion, measurement, and control solutions for industrial applications. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.

- ANSYS, Inc. (ANSS): Develops and markets engineering simulation software used for predicting how product designs will behave in real-world environments. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.

- Keysight Technologies (KEYS): Produces electronic design and test instrumentation. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.

- ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR): Develops wet processing technology and equipment for semiconductor devices. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.

- Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): Designs integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP): Manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog, and Flash-IP integrated circuits. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB): Designs and markets a range of silicon, software, and solutions for the Internet of Things, internet infrastructure, industrial automation, consumer, and automotive markets. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.

- Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS): Produces semiconductor products for use in radio frequency and mobile communications systems. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA): Develops human interface solutions including touch, display, and biometrics products for a range of electronic devices. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.

- Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI): Specializes in data conversion, signal processing, and power management technology. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.

- Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS): Provides electronic design automation software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.

- Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD): Supplies industrial gases and related equipment to various industries including semiconductors. Category: Raw Materials and Components.