path: root/Trading.md

# Trades Watchlist

- MO/PM - BUY DIP ???
- [[wiki4:LIN|LIN]]  - Long when turnaround in ISM PMI
- [[wiki4:AMT|AMT]]  - Proxy for trading rates (yields)
- BG   - Long Inflation trade - BUY DIP
- BTU  - DEFINE & BUY DIP
- HE - hwaian electric (turnaround) ?
- Short UPS / FDX
- Short BYND - OPTION TRADE SINCE HARD TO FIND SHARES
- Short NSRGY

- LONG POAHY - Euro rearmement bet

- Short PE (, BX, APO) party over
- why? Credit where danger currently is, why?
- short CVNA
- LONG UURAF (biggest weight citrini...)
- INTC - most obvious market long
- Long ZM
- [[wiki4:CCCX|CCCX]]
- Pure garbage: $OKLO, $RGTI, $CVNA $HOOD $DASH $PLTR $SMR $IONQ $ELF $DUOL BBAI
- PTON - sleepy bullish
- U - 50-60 PT
- [[wiki4:DD|DD]] - buyback story - bullish
- [[wiki4:MNMD|MNMD]]
- [[wiki4:ROKU|ROKU]]
- [[wiki4:SATL|SATL]]
- short CRWV
- LONG CEG AT 200SMA
WBD sell jan 20 put @ 1.10$
WBD Buy dec 25 cal @ 0.75$
- Long OMDA
- MSOS or GTBIF
- Short CPB
- [[wiki4:RIG|RIG]]
- [[wiki4:LASR|LASR]]
- prepare silver short like HL as hedge but reverse turn around trade eventually
- YLLXF
- XOM 145 PT 
- SU
- [[wiki4:HON|HON]]


# Market Themes (dynamics) (eventually separate into current and future?)

The bull ended the second week of October. ???

2026 will be the years for:
Defense
space tech
Healthcare & Energy
commodities, real stuff
materials
Riots ? purple spring finally ?
slow bleed of AI buildout trade
Will bio tech continue to lead
Fannie/Freddie IPO ?
Us midterms cycle 3mar-3nov
CCII - blockchain.com spac ?

another leg for silver to 80 ?

If Germany truly intends to build the "strongest conventional army in Europe" with €650B over 5 years, there is no path to achieve this without Volkswagen Group's manufacturing capacity

privite lendings stress find shorts >

I have to start having hard stop loses, I have to tell myself NEVER NEVER CAN I BE DOWN 11% in a position after 1 day in a trade...

- GOLD 1934 playbook? - Bessent "monetising the balance sheet assets"
- short turnaround ai bubble pop - prepare trades in advance
- Chinese supply chain wars - Rare earth CCP export control
dec 1 start
- pentagon... THE ERA OF VITOL, GUNVOR, GLENCORE, TRAFIGURA AND MERCURIA IS COMING TO AN END ?
 The Russell is in the process of having a proper breakout that will be a signal people look back on retrospectively similar to 2021
- handset to headset transition
- Ad agencies to be hurt by GenAI (IPG, OMC, WPP)
- GAG (trump admin won't take care of the deficit, it was just a big joke, they will pump bags so DC can service more debt)
- Golden Dome - $ASTS $RKLB $BKSY $RDW $ESLT
- copper deficit by 2026 ?
What we saw in the last couple of weeks was likely a preview of a wider “unwind” that may (or may not!) take place later down the line.

Ai buildout energy high quality : GEV, CEG, VRT

- Canada being greeked - Greeks had borrowed money from the global markets in order to buy houses massively. They thought that house ownership somehow, someone, somewhere would produce goods and services for them
- greeked - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-housing-market-is-no-longer-a-wealth-building-engine-as-home-prices-continue-to-slump/ar-AA1LyI8C?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
https://www.newsweek.com/majority-companies-hiking-prices-cover-tariffs-kpmg-10840802


midterms - Q1 usually is OK, with the weakness coming in Q2 and Q3 - see chart 
the subsequent quarters after Midterms are the strongest

- https://redlib.privacyredirect.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1of1r16/short_quantum_ionq_qbts_rgti_qubt_btq_laes_cccx/


China planning to elevate Gold to HQLA(High-Quality Liquid Assets) status for repo and infrastructure funding for BRICS nations

KRE good bellweather

Neptune 29degree pices = peak bs in the world - GAG

End of april move - rik find out why exactly... 4nov vid

Take a peak at Carvana’s, Apollo’s, Owl’s, KKR’s, Blackstone’s, or anyone else in the private credit space. The stink of that sector is starting to become over bearing and is leaking. One of these names is going to take it on the chin hard at some point in the next 6 - 12 months, no one knows who. Apollo is probably the best in the space, but Enron’s collapse crushed the good utilities as well. Maybe Apollo is the best and won’t suffer too much, they’re still gonna get taken down.

Burry's got NVDA 12/17/2027 110P


Silver A massive paper market was built to suppress volatility. The paper market is now estimated at 50x the physical... price supression will break leading to higher price and possibly no physical silver

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-yields-pressure-automakers-it-rethinks-2035-combustion-car-ban-2025-12-15/
https://www.inboundlogistics.com/articles/pedal-to-the-metal-general-motors-orders-suppliers-to-exit-china-supply-chains/
# citrini
We think healthcare will be ground zero for phase 2 of AI, expect significant improvement in speed and efficiency in identifing drug candidate will led to significant tailwind for the drug devellopement supply chain.

# sleepy sol

something like, small pullback into Wednesday (ish) rally into new year, chop around for a bit, puke in February or March down to somewhere between 6300 - 6500. Depending on how aggressively tech is puking, as that will lead us lower, will determine if we stop there and then rally up to 7,200 - 7,500 by early 2027, or if we’re done done levels of killed.

FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT  END GOAL

Long end of every gov is starting to collapse as inflation or idea of inflation gets into the system
if energy does not work in the next few weeks, will not work until q2 2026 ... ?

end 26 HAS 100-115$ PT

sleepy sol - RDDT 2027 250 calls on the next touch of 141.


It’s only 1997 or oct 1999 ?

2026
MSTR BTC risk
Oil Shock risk
Ai bubble bursting



map past macro event in GLD and SPY charts


# Thesis

Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession)
Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini

Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation

Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement


# Themes & setups

- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24...
- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where?
- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
- Commodities & platinum deficit
- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy
- Future was ai just a meme pullback
- value/grow spread largest in 40 years
- Humanoid robot theme meme wave
- Bond 3std move in 2025?
- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April
- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season
-  Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year
- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth

### ITPM 2025 outlook
- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets
- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper
- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows)
- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump
- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ?
- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable
- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now
- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
- 10/2y as steepened/normalised
- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth
- Energy cost


# Alex notes
- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in
- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions
- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy)
- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy)
- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold
- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go
- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25)
- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50
- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration