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authornic <ra@afu.re>2024-07-30 20:54:47 -0400
committernic <ra@afu.re>2024-07-30 20:54:47 -0400
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tree0e4d5b1c784a3a39fcf0be77e603acfe7d52f925 /Finance/Fundamentals
parent0b29ebeaff0ff89f921496ec25046db99965a564 (diff)
Auto from nzxt - Tue 30 Jul 2024 08:54:47 PM EDT
Diffstat (limited to 'Finance/Fundamentals')
-rw-r--r--Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md34
-rw-r--r--Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md13
-rw-r--r--Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md12
-rw-r--r--Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md64
-rw-r--r--Finance/Fundamentals/index.md38
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diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md
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+Don't trade P/L, trade stocks
+
+90/90/90
+
+Price leads sentiment and sentiment drive the narrative.
+
+Cheapest "insurance" is trend following.
+
+Naked selling of Options is akin to "Picking pennies of the railway track."
+
+As soon as you are long options you are long volatility and time is agaisnt you.
+
+The economy is not a speedboat its a tanker.
+
+Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking.
+
+All models are wrong.
+
+Be Right, Be Early, Be Loud
+
+Buy protection when you can, not when you must.
+
+You can trade nonsense but don't believe it
+
+Don't react like a Pavlovian response machines to the daily market narratives
+
+Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down
+
+When a trader start to feel really smart, he is headed for a huge drawdown
+
+Nothing is ever confirmed until it is pubicly denied
+
+Solana is best thought as 4xQQQ
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
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+[[Gross Domestic Products (GDP)]]
+
+[[ISM Purshasing Manager Index (PMI)]]
+
+[[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI)]]
+
+
+
+
+3 types of economic indicator
+- Lagging Past (lag 3-6 months)
+- Coincident Present
+- Leading Future (lag 6-12 months
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md
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+
+Bullish:
+ - [[Long Call]]
+ - [[Short Put]]
+ -
+
+
+Bearish:
+
+
+
+Hedging:
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Trade Idea Thesis.md
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+# The Trade Idea Thesis
+
+Quantitative Analysis: Macro, Sectors & Stock Data
+
+Qualitative Analysis: The Story. Understanding the company business & commenting on it.
+
+KPI’s: Understanding the metrics that drive Revenue & Earnings
+
+Catalyst: Potential event that will drive alpha
+
+Time Horizon: Shortest time frame that will capture the catalyst(s)
+
+Price Target: Quant and Volatility analysis
+
+Trade Structure: Stock, options , spread trade ? Risk management ?
+
+
+## Quantitative Analysis
+
+Numbers, Numbers and Numbers !
+
+EPS0, EPS1, EPS2, PE1, PE2, EG1, EG2, PEG1, PEG2
+
+To work out these numbers you would only need stock price, reported EPS and forward looking EPS.
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+Why inferior/superior earnings and/or revenue growth ?
+What are the drivers of growth ?
+What advantages/disadvantages in relation to the sector ?
+Will it continue ?
+What are the future catalysts ?
+Do you agree with the market ?
+Will you have conviction medium/long term if in the short term it goes against you ?
+Are you willing to buy/short more to back your idea ?
+What are the risks ?
+What changes the story, what changes your mind if you are wrong ?
+Who is the management and is it any good ?
+Who are the shareholders ?
+What will affect earnings ?
+What is the sector doing ?
+What is the product ?
+How do they fit in the supply chain ?
+Who are the suppliers ?
+Who are the customers ?
+Who is the competition ?
+What is the company share of the market ? Gaining / Losing ?
+
+
+## KPI’s
+
+Most sectors have different KPI’s, find them usually in presentations, earning calls or industry reports.
+
+
+## Catalysts
+
+Earnings, Buyback, splits, dividends, outlook
+Acquisition, Restructuring and Deals
+Legal & Regulatory issues
+Analyst upgrade / downgrade
+Credit upgrade / downgrade
+Short squeeze
+Conference & Events
+Products launches
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
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+[[The Trade Idea Thesis]]
+
+[[Indicators]]
+
+[[Axioms]]
+
+[[Option Strategies]]
+
+Theory?
+
+
+Q1 = Janvier,Fevrier,Mars
+Q2 = Avril,May,Juin
+Q3 = Juillet,Aout,Septembre
+
+
+# Return Formula
+
+R(n) = (CP(n) - OP(n)) / OP(n)
+
+Where:
+ - R(n) = Return in period n
+ - CP(n) = Close price
+ - OP(n) = Open price
+
+
+# 11 Major Sector
+
+ | Real Estate | Cyclical |
+ | Health Care | Value/Defensive |
+ | Financials | Cyclical |
+ | Utilities | Value/Defensive |
+ | Consumer Defensive/Staples | Value/Defensive |
+ | Consumer Discretionary | Cyclical |
+ | Communication Services | Cyclical |
+ | Technology | Growth |
+ | Materials | Cyclical |
+ | Energy | Value/Cyclical |