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diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md index 54c6aaa..8b13789 100644 --- a/Finance/Current.md +++ b/Finance/Current.md @@ -1,51 +1 @@ -# Thesis -Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession) -Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini - -Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation - -Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes -4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement - - -# Themes & setups - -- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... -- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where? -- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up -- Commodities & platinum deficit -- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy -- Future was ai just a meme pullback -- value/grow spread largest in 40 years -- Humanoid robot theme meme wave -- Bond 3std move in 2025? -- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April -- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season -- Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year -- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth - -# ITPM 2025 outlook -- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets -- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper -- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows) -- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump -- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ? -- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable -- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now -- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary -- 10/2y as steepened/normalised -- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth -- Energy cost - - -# Alex notes -- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in -- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions -- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy) -- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy) -- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold -- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go -- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25) -- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50 -- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration |